[LCN] Raid Boss Walkthrough and Feedback Thread

So what? People can do what they want for whatever reason they have.

Ask the person who listed you, not us.

 

get used to it they want you to heal so they can keep doing it while you try to participate in the raid, this right here is prime example why you do not need to place the heal to attack people will list just cause you took a spot.

 

You don't need to be healed to participate in raids. I get listed out of nowhere all the time. It's a part of the game. Could be as simple as someone going for an achievement or maybe you rubbed someone the wrong way.

 

and with this you could imagine the heck they would do while your head is turned being occupied by a raid.

 

it is bit imbalanced but depends on what u want to achieve using raid. for me raid boss is abt levelling, so i spend abt 120 fp per raid to get abt 50 lvls. a full pack of energy can give u heal for two full pack of stamina. two full pack of stamina is abt almost 4 lvls

 

I really don't have the time to go through 30 pages of posts. Can someone please post the "rules" for raid participation? It seems that there is some confusion on this.

 

Since the very first Raid Boss on LCN, I have made several Posts regarding the "randomness" of the Rewards Items Drops - Well, here I am again restating the SAME thing.. I have been in MANY successful Vigilante League Raid Bosses now and received the MANY Rewards Items that come with them (I realize stating "MANY" can be subjective), but there is STILL one Item that I have not yet received. I am NOT attempting to collect the entire "set" of Rewards Items (per say), but I continue to receive the SAME few Items upon completion of these Raid Bosses! As you can see in the following screenshot, the "randomness" of the Rewards Items Drops don't seem to be very "random" (as I have stated from day one). How "random" is having FIVE of one Item and ZERO of another? It's simple and basic mathematics, and NOT very "random" at all! I am choosing to only Post a screenshot of the "Superior" Items I currently own, but my count of "Common" Items is not very random either..
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It's a common misconception that "random" means that you get an even distribution in small samples. That is not the case. In a proper random sample, you get many streaks. Keep in mind that there are many possible sets of 15 items where you never get one of the 6 items. Each individual set is very unlikely, but the chance that you miss one of the items in 15 drops is very large.

Here is a random generator: http://www.dave-reed.com/Nifty/randSeq.html

I generated some sets of 50 from 6 possible letters a-f (a = item 1, b = item 2, etc):
ffcffaddddddbbdbfbdccbceefcfbbddededdfccbdcbfeafed (first b in 13th place)
ffaffbfebddcbfdbaeacedceacedbfcdbcbdaccacbbfaacdbb (first c in 12th place)
bbacfffeeabbacbebdeeaeabcabaadfddbbbfdddeaebdcdcdb (first d in 18th place)
aeefefecaefffdcfccbcddddaefddcbacccecaacdbeeebfbba (first b in 19th place)

Look at how long it takes to get the final letter/item. And look at the streak of 5 d's in the first set (which many people would interpret as proof of non-randomness). In that set it also takes 47 drops to get the second 'a' at which point you have 14 d's. Most people who know 'basic mathematics' don't actually understand how random 'random' really is. This bad distribution that you complain about is not a proof of a lack of randomness, it is randomness.

The average number of drops you need to collect all 6 items is 14.7. So you are just slightly above the number of drops where you have a 50% chance to collect all 6 (in other words, what happened to you happens almost 50% of the time). Because the Gambler's Fallacy isn't true, the last item will on average take another 6 picks (but it can be much longer due to randomness).

 

First of all, I would like to say that I am DEFINITELY not complaining - I am simply stating my opinion. Let's use the "Common" Items for examples, because "Superior" Items can sometimes be guaranteed, making any calculations unstable. I currently own fifty "Common" Items from the Vigilante League Raid Bosses, with six different ones available. Using the Random Letter Sequence Generator from the link you provided, I chose to generate fifty sequences using six letters: a,b,c,d,e,f (which represent the total number of different Items available one could "randomly" receive upon successful completion of a Raid Boss. Here are the results:

f b e a a d f b b e b b e f f e d e f d b d a f c b e c e f a b b e e c f f d c a c c d e a e e b b

From those results, I would have received six letter 'a' Items, eleven 'b' Items, six 'c' Items, six 'd' Items, twelve 'e' Items, and nine 'f' Items. Based on those results (using a more realistic number of fifty sequences) one would have to conclude that is a VERY random mix, and the lowest number of one particular Item received was six in that example. I understand that "random" is exactly that - "random". Rather than have used the word "mathematics" in my last Post, I should have used "probability" instead. Since my last Post I have received another "Superior" Item - I now own sixteen of the six available Items, but still have ZERO "Raid Bikes". I have changed the number of sequences to generate to sixteen sequences (because I own 16 of the 6 available Superior Items) and generated the "random" outcome at LEAST fifty times, and in EVERY outcome, ALL six letters (or Items) were "randomly generated"! So I believe it's safe to say that SOMETHING has happened for me to still not have received one of the six available Items, because according to your sequence generator seems almost impossible to happen..

 

An opinion that I've heard in many games and which was wrong each time. The issue is that our natural intuition for numbers doesn't always match mathematics, especially for probabilities.

This is where you are going wrong. Having 2 'a' items and 14 'd' items is also a a very random mix (and what happened in the first example in my post). Your mistake is that you equate randomness with an even distribution. That is only true for large numbers, but people mistakenly assume that their examples are sufficiently large, when they are actually small. A sequence of 50 with 6 possibilities is a small sample. A sequence of 15/16 is a very small sample.

A very large number of scientific probability studies make mistakes like this and the people writing those have pretty high IQs. Yet they still make mistakes like these very often. The reason is that probability math is hard. Not just difficult, but really, really hard. The worst part is that it seems a lot easier than it is, so people very confidently come up with stuff that is 100% wrong.

And the likelihood that this would happen is 5/6 = 83% (since your chances don't increase per drop). That you apparently feel that this is unlikely and/or unfair, shows that you don't understand probabilities.

That is quite unlikely (but possible: randomness). When I generated just 10 sequences of 16, I got several where one item was missing.

But it's also important to realize that the chance of getting a bad streak of 16, after you already had a bad streak of 15, is much higher than having a bad streak of 16 from scratch. So you can't just change the size of the sequence to 16 to prove how unlikely it is that your 16th drop was another non-"Raid Bike"

SOMETHING = randomness.

Again, probability math is often counter intuitive. You say many things that show me that you don't understand it properly. This is not surprising, if I were to guess, I'd say that less than 5% of the population has a decent understanding. So I'm not calling you stupid or anything. The stuff you called 'basic mathematics' earlier is actually more like rocket science.

 

I'm not even going to waste my time on an educated response because you are obviously more mathematically inclined than me (and the other 95% of people in the world), when the facts are that you don't even know me! I have met more people with HUGE heads playing this game for a year than I have EVER met in my entire life - FACT!

 

I don't know you in real life, but the things you write show me how you reason about probabilities. So fact is that I do know you a bit, by what you divulge in your posts.

I don't want to list my credentials, since it will just be dismissed as bragging, but I do have extensive mathematical training and yet feel only barely competent when it comes to probabilities. It really is very, very difficult, while not appearing so to people with basic mathematical knowledge (see the Dunning–Kruger effect).

Sorry that I made you upset, I really didn't mean to insult you (and I went out of my way to explain that you are not being stupid). It's a sad fact of life that when one tries to educate people, they often get angry and upset, no matter how nice you are.

Ultimately, all of us, no matter how smart, lack knowledge in some areas. Even for things that we are knowledgeable about, there usually exist people that are way more knowledgeable and that we can learn from. I do think I'm more knowledgeable than you on this particular subject, but that doesn't mean that I think I'm better than you or can't learn from you or others on certain subjects.

Hug?

 

Thought the only math in the game was when the stupid addition thing comes up while hunting? Way too early for probabilities and mathematical issues The drops are the drops. I've learned that being 1st, 11th or 21st within your tier in total damage means nothing unless you are in those positions for total actions. Then the sup should drop. Which of course sucks but it is what it is. Bust a$$ on several to take the first spot and make sure you are also the highest there for total actions.

 

Gambler's Fallacy vs. Permutations vs. SheerDumbLuck. It's KANO, not KENO .
I feel like I'm back at University. But there's still an 83.333... % chance you WON'T get your 6th item each drop.

 

Need a hug

 

Eventually the raids will die. As people level up they will be less inclined to spend money as they cannot level so quickly therefor not getting the 500 energy on leveling and having to buy energy refils.
It is already seen on many many Raid bosses where low to mid tier do lots more actions than higher levels...Not because they are spending more but just because they are able to level faster.
Perhaps the xp for higher levels needs adjusting to once again try and bring it in line with every players account.

 

If you really do the math, if you are just looking for great items, I don't know if it is worth the investment to drop 20 fp on healing refills and 20 fp on stamina refills to just get an items that is less than what you can get for a 30 fp item. With a lot of players max energy and max stamina, sometimes a lot of refills are required especially if looking to be #1 in total actions on a particular RAID.

If you are looking to level and you can get quite a few levels out of it with decent exp per stamina, then I would say the rewards are just the bonus and the refills are not a concern.

I found that I got decent exp for the most part (I wish it was just a little better) and I tried to get in as many as possible and especially into RAIDS with players looking to be top tier as it made it possible to just do minimum and get the common reward for a relatively low investment. Any RAID I saw needed help, I invested more and any time someone asked me if they could heal while I did attacks I was more than willing. There were also several RAIDS in which I was invited and asked by the boss owner to only do minimum which I was more than happy to agree to.

I am curious to know if other players are happy with the experience per stamina they are getting?
And are a lot of players participating in RAIDS?
Do a lot of players OPEN their own RAIDS or just look for others to join?

 

I started off just joining raids, but now always start 1 raid of my own. It's nice to get a guaranteed superior drop and it turns out that high players want to help me. But I would only advise it if you already know a bunch of top tier player that you can get to join. Too many low levels open bosses with no idea how to fill them.

On all raids, I do at least min and whatever more is needed to help kill it. I pretty much never get 1st place now, because I refuse to refill. Better to get 1000 hired guns first.

I focus more on getting stronger than optimizing experience per stamina. I don't like doing chores in games just for exp.

 

i just hope that there's a glitch for the next raid event, that would be awesome!

 

The best drop works out about the same as a sale 17 fp item but yes you're right and its the same with synd wars and BA they want u to invest to get less back in the rewards, to me it doesn't seem such an inviting offer anymore =/ , the only improvements i can see from the latest survey for raids will be to see how much more money they can fleece us for. sorry but its true as u guys ignore the fact that many people are complaining that raids are costing us a shed load more in health with bad ratios like 1400 stam to 1k energy used for healing when it would be more beneficial for both KANO and raid dwellers if u set them back to 1800 stam used to 1k energy, this would usually make sure people did approx 9 million damage as a minimum and give better chance for raids to be completed and not all them freeloaders who sit at 4 to 6 mill damage. set the ratios back and many more people will invest more money into them. Isn't that what u want KANO, a good return from them. Don't know how else to say it guys i want to invest more money but u don't seem interested. Look at BA now this season u can see very few invest in them now u disabled the sub-game to a point its not worth playing, majority of people enter BA for XP only now. Great job there lol.
One thing i loved about playing this game at the beginning was that it wasnt as greedy minded as mobsters2 devs got too when they dished out sp re-allocations and 500 fp on some items that once u bought were useless, many left M2 when they showed they was just getting too greedy and the game soon died out. please don't let LCN go this way too, so many heavy spenders have actually left the game now. Once upon a time our calendar items were the best items we had in our stockpile when you first introduced them. Back then you guys rewarded people who were loyal regular players too not just the spenders. The outlook on this game has changed so much in 5 yrs and im gutted to say not for the better, i used to always praise the great job u guys did to look after the gamers especially with Hi5 and myspace transfers no other dev team would do the same and go to such great lengths to help their players. No doubt u will just ignore my post but its true this time i spent alot less on Raids and i know many top players did too check the sales during raids to see guys.