Raid Boss Owner Drop

Discussion in 'General Discussions' started by Sleeper Service, Apr 23, 2015.

  1. Twilight

    Twilight New Member

    I suspect random isn't completely random because I often get far more of 1 (or 2) items than of the others. It's gotten so that by 5-6 items, I can usually tell which item(s) will be the super-common for that raid.
  2. Kirsten

    Kirsten Well-Known Member

  3. Twilight

    Twilight New Member

    Oh, I know the meaning of random. It's just statistically suspect when every raid, there is a disproportionate distribution. It could just be random (not a large enough sample to say for certain) but the more raids it happens on, the less likely it is truly random (or pseudo-random even).
  4. Blue Nose

    Blue Nose Active Member

    I've noticed something similar on LCN...

    Only your artwork is nicer!
  5. Aapje

    Aapje Well-Known Member

    Higher than you think. Which happens to be the question that answers 50% of probability questions :)

    Less than you think answers the other 50%.
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2015
  6. Aapje

    Aapje Well-Known Member

    There are only a few ways to get a truly even distribution. There are many more ways to get an uneven distribution. So you should have an uneven distribution on the vast majority of raids.

    An example: let's say you get 6 drops in total. To have an even distribution (one of each), the first pick doesn't matter: 1. The second pick can't be the one you already had, but there are 5 other possible picks: 5/6. The 3rd pick must be one of the remaining 4: 4/6. Etc, etc. The last pick has only 1 valid pick to get an even distribution, so this already cuts your chance in 6: 1/6.

    So the total chance is 1 * 5/6 * 4/6 * 3/6 * 2/6 * 1/6 = 1.5% chance to get a proportional distribution for 6 drops.

    PS. Like I explained in another thread, it is a common mistake to equate randomness with proportionality. For small samples (like you see in the game), proportional results are actually very unlikely if the game is truly random.
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2015
  7. RafeDavid

    RafeDavid Well-Known Member

    I chuckle when I read someone say they received 6 drops and 4 were the same so it obviously is not random. That is exactly what it is random.

    Not sure if this analogy will help but here goes: you roll a die six times do you expect it to come up each side once? Of course not because on each roll there is a one in six chance. Those odds don't change with each roll. It is always one in six.

    A small sample size very likely will always result in skewed data. There simply isn't enough data to allow the laws of probability to come into play.
    Kirsten likes this.
  8. Twilight

    Twilight New Member

    Oh, I understand the probabilities (though I haven't bothered running exact numbers) but it seems suspect that it is disproportionate every raid in the same way (for me, every time except one has had a single item far more common (the other time was two items)). As I said, it is a relatively small sample, so it may be random (or more likely randomish since I doubt they are bothering to use any of the more complex truly random methods). My largest sample from a single raid was (iirc) 20 items with 9 of them being the same and one other item being 0 - possibly random but a relatively unlikely distribution (what would the calc for that distribution be anyway? I was trying to remember but apparently most of my stats/probability memory is gone after 20 years).

    On the other hand, it really doesn't matter much which items you get (just if they are common or superior) so I'm not really concerned.
  9. Mary Lou

    Mary Lou Member

    Hey, whatever drop I get is a good drop! Raids are lots of fun and the drops are like little prizes that fall down!
  10. Applejack

    Applejack Active Member

    it is not "suspect". you have a 16.7% chance of getting any particular drop. just because you already have 5 out of 6 of the drops doesn't mean that you will have a "greater" chance that you will get the last one, you will still have the same low percentage of getting that particular drop.

    GOING TO CATCH DAVID Well-Known Member

    I do not worry about being the top for my tier in any of the RAIDS and I have seen about 11.5% superior drops and 88.5 common. And I am okay with that. As far as what drop I get, I had 11 vehicles, 13 armors, and 13 weapons that were common and 3 vehicles and 2 armors that were superior. I was in 43 RAIDS total this last one. (well, 46 if you count 3 that were defeated).
  12. Twilight

    Twilight New Member

    @Applejack, yes, you have a 16.7% chance of getting any particular drop on any instance. However, the odds of getting (almost) half drops the same and getting no drops of one item are very low even for a sample size of 20.

    On most raid bosses, I'm seeing well below 10% superior (unless I have very high actions on the boss). The Techno raid appears to drop more superior though (at least I've gotten far higher superior % on Techno vs any other raid boss).

    GOING TO CATCH DAVID Well-Known Member

    Wouldn't it be nice if Kano/Kong just told us their formulas and gave us more info on how they decide things LOL I have many "math" friends who do so much research in figuring out data to determine what is the best way to play. Even I myself do keep track of things and try to make decisions on what is best for my game. But partly I like to keep track of stuff so I can answer questions later like "How much stamina did you have at level 4000?" or "How long did it take you to reach level 5000?" etc.
  14. JARVIN

    JARVIN Active Member

    the "formula" is that you have a 16.7% chance of a drop of a particular item, i'm not sure why players are making this more complicated than it is.
  15. JADES

    JADES Well-Known Member

    LOL, not quite true when you throw in the chance at a superior drop as well :p
  16. JARVIN

    JARVIN Active Member

    yes, but you aren't "guaranteed" a chance at a superior drop. that only happens if you do the most actions in your tier or it's the first boss that you've opened during the event. any other time, it's the same 16.7% chance for either a common or superior drop, isn't it?

    GOING TO CATCH DAVID Well-Known Member

    I just meant formulas in general. LOL Seems like you are wound up a little tight over this.

    I play because I like to play. Just sometimes it is fun to try and determine things like how does 1 skill point equal 1 point increase in arming. or 1 skill point compared to just the increase in an item used. Sometimes figuring out how critical attack bonus is determined or why someone with an over strength of 300,000 attack can beat someone with an overall defense of 350,000. The game is what it is and at the end of the day I close my little notebook and forget about it. But some days when I am really bored, I like to try and determine little stuff just to see if I change something in my game if it will help me. :)

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