That would certainly make sense. Unfortunately, I'm not yet 620th level, so I can't say what the chances are. Of course, using this logic, there's only five drops in Aegir's Passage (talking about the Trident mentioned above), along with five other items shown on the "Adventure" page. Plus, considering that the Land's End Sentinel uses the "Hero" boss drop item from the world boss, you have to consider that one of those items might be part of the formula as well. Also, I'd point out that the "Hero" is unlocked at 150, whereas the "Aegir's Trident" is supposedly unlocked at 140. Not sure how you'd unlock the recipe but make it with an item you don't qualify for yet? And of course (the worst part), all three recipes use a gift, and I don't know about the rest of you, but I see 41 of those.
Someone who's higher level than I am will have to look at this (I'm only 595 at the moment), but of the three recipes I can see (Hero's Warship, Land's End Sentinel, and Forged Helmet), here's the recipe list:
Hero's Warship:
- (Boss Drop) 1 Undersea Chariot
- (Boss Drop) 3 Tentacle Whips
- (Gift) 1 Byggvir Ale *
Land's End Sentinel:
- (Market) 2 Hel Minions
- (World Boss Drop) 1 Hero
- (Gift) 1 War Boots *
Forged Helmet:
- (Market) 1 Fafnir Dragon Helmet
- (Adventure Drop) 2 Fenrir
- (Gift) 1 Viking War Helm *
I'd also point out that there are four slots listed in the Blacksmith, so it's entirely possible a fourth item is needed.
So as a result, I'd probably start with three items, and hope the world boss drops weren't in there, so for the Aegir's Trident: 51 x 50 x 49 = 124,950 combinations, if only three ingredients and no world boss drops, but this could go as high as 54 x 53 x 52 = 148,824 combinations or even 13 x 12 x 11 x 10 = 7.6 million combinations, if a world boss drop from lvl 160 or less was included.
Finally, for what it's worth, I didn't see any ingredients repeated in those three recipes so if the Aegir's Trident follows that pattern (and three recipes really is nowhere near enough to qualify as a "pattern," IMO), our possibilities are one heck of a lot lower: 3 possible market items, plus 2 possible boss drops, plus 38 gifts, plus (possibly) 2 world boss drops. That works out as follows:
No world boss, three ingredients: 43 x 42 x 41 = 74,046
No world boss, four ingredients: 43 x 42 x 41 x 40 = 2.96 million
World boss, three ingredients: 45 x 44 x 43 = 85,140
World boss, four ingredients: 45 x 44 x 43 x 42 = 3.6 million
...if my math is right (and it might not be, since I'm rushing out the door at the moment).
Last edited: Dec 24, 2010